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The Sunday Prep #2: Week of October 26, 2026

Writer: Anthony M.
Anthony M.
Oct 25
8 min read

Sunday, 10-25-2026. All times Pacific. Prices are daily closes through Friday, 10-23-2026, checked against CME Group settlements.


Welcome back to the desk

Last week, oil went one way and almost everything else went the other. Micro crude rose 4.29% to $103.27 and closed 66 cents under its weekly high. Gold fell 4.14% and finished the week just $18.90 above its low. Nasdaq and the S&P slipped less than 1% each, but the path was rough. On Thursday alone, MNQ fell 865 points. That's $1,730 on one micro contract in one day. The full story is in our Week in Review on the blog.

This week is different. It has a clear center of gravity.


The busiest 36 hours of the quarter

From Wednesday's oil report to Thursday night's Bank of Japan decision, seven big events land back to back.

When (PT)

Event

Markets

Wed 10-28, 7:30 a.m.

EIA weekly oil inventories

MCL

Wed 10-28, 11:00 a.m.

Fed decision (statement)

All four

Wed 10-28, 11:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Warsh's press conference

All four

Wed 10-28, after 1:00 p.m.

Microsoft and Alphabet earnings

MNQ, MES

Thu 10-29, 5:30 a.m.

Q3 GDP, September PCE inflation, weekly jobless claims

All four

Thu 10-29, after 1:00 p.m.

Amazon and Intel earnings

MNQ, MES

Thu 10-29, evening

Bank of Japan decision (Friday morning in Tokyo)

MGC, MNQ, MES

What the market expects going in:

  • The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75% to 4.00%. CME FedWatch pricing showed roughly a 9 in 10 chance of no change, with most of the remaining odds on a hike. The Fed raised rates a quarter point in September, its first hike since 2023. Futures price a December hike as likely.

  • Inflation is expected to pick up. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast puts September PCE inflation at 3.6% overall and 3.1% core, up from 3.4% and 3.0% in August.

  • Growth is expected to be solid. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for third-quarter growth is 3.5%, after 2.2% in the second quarter.

Why it matters: a hot inflation number on Thursday would land one day after the Fed explains its plan. Then the market's largest tech companies report on top of it. Each event can move price on its own. Stacked together, they can push price far past where it was the day before.

Expectations are not results. Forecasts like these get revised, and the market moves most when the actual number is a surprise.


Your clocks just changed (but ours didn't)

Europe ended daylight saving time today, Sunday 10-25. The U.S. doesn't switch until next Sunday, 11-1. For this one week, Europe is an hour closer to us.

Session

Last week (PT)

This week (PT)

From 11-1 (PT)

Tokyo open (9:00 a.m. Tokyo)

5:00 p.m.

5:00 p.m.

4:00 p.m.

London open (8:00 a.m. London)

12:00 a.m.

1:00 a.m.

12:00 a.m.

CME Globex reopen

3:00 p.m.

3:00 p.m.

3:00 p.m.

If you trade the Asia session, nothing changes this week. If you watch London, it opens an hour later than you're used to. European news moves too: Thursday's ECB decision comes at 6:15 a.m. PT instead of 5:15. Next week, the U.S. falls back, London returns to midnight and Tokyo opens an hour earlier for us.


Last week in four charts

Each chart shows about three months of daily candles. The shaded box is last week, and the dashed lines mark its high and low. The 21 EMA (cream) tracks about a month, the 50 EMA (periwinkle) about a quarter, and the 200 EMA (gold) roughly a year.

MNQ: back near the low

MNQ daily chart with last week's high and low and the 21, 50 and 200 EMAs

MNQ fell 273.75 points (0.93%) and closed at 29,117.75. That's 131.50 points above last week's low of 28,986.25. Overhead, three levels sit within 109 points of each other: the 50 EMA (30,005.66), the 21 EMA (30,106.09) and last week's high (30,114.00). The 200 EMA is below at 28,250.64.

MES: on the floor

MES daily chart with last week's high and low and the 21, 50 and 200 EMAs

MES fell 44.50 points (0.58%) and closed at 7,659.75, only 11.25 points above last week's low of 7,648.50. Both the 50 EMA (7,724.32) and the 21 EMA (7,759.33) are now above price.

MCL: at the ceiling

MCL daily chart with last week's high and low and the 21, 50 and 200 EMAs

MCL rose $4.25 (4.29%) and closed at $103.27, 66 cents below last week's high of $103.93. Price is above all three EMAs. The nearest one, the 21 EMA at $95.73, is more than $7 below.

MGC: under every average

MGC daily chart with last week's high and low and the 21, 50 and 200 EMAs

MGC fell $173.20 (4.14%) and closed at $4,007.90, $18.90 above last week's low of $3,989.00. All three EMAs are above price: the 21 EMA ($4,175.70), the 50 EMA ($4,253.90) and the 200 EMA ($4,308.80). Spot gold closed below $4,000. The futures contract did not.


Key levels at a glance

Market

Fri close

Prev wk high

Prev wk low

21 EMA

50 EMA

200 EMA

MNQ

29,117.75

30,114.00

28,986.25

30,106.09

30,005.66

28,250.64

MES

7,659.75

7,811.75

7,648.50

7,759.33

7,724.32

7,366.40

MCL

103.27

103.93

95.26

95.73

92.52

84.49

MGC

4,007.90

4,211.20

3,989.00

4,175.70

4,253.90

4,308.80

Closes, highs and lows match CME Group's December contract settlements for the micro contracts. EMAs are calculated on TradingView continuous front-month daily closes. Your broker's numbers can differ slightly.

No contract rolls this week for these four markets.


This week's full calendar

"Before open" means before 6:30 a.m. PT. "After close" means after 1:00 p.m. PT.

  • Mon 10-26: Verizon earnings before the open; Cadence Design after the close. MES, MNQ

  • Tue 10-27, before open: Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, S&P Global earnings. MES

  • Tue 10-27, 5:30 a.m.: durable goods orders (Sep). MES, MNQ

  • Tue 10-27, 7:00 a.m.: Conference Board consumer confidence; new home sales. MES, MNQ

  • Tue 10-27, after close: Visa, Seagate, Robinhood earnings. MES, MNQ

  • Wed 10-28, 5:30 a.m.: trade balance and wholesale inventories (Sep). All four

  • Wed 10-28, about 6:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada decision. MCL context

  • Wed 10-28, 7:30 a.m.: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. MCL

  • Wed 10-28, 11:00 a.m.: Fed decision. 11:30 a.m.: press conference. All four

  • Wed 10-28, after close: Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, T-Mobile earnings. MNQ, MES

  • Thu 10-29, before open: Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell earnings. MES, MCL

  • Thu 10-29, 5:30 a.m.: Q3 GDP (advance), September PCE inflation and personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims. All four

  • Thu 10-29, 6:15 a.m.: ECB decision. MGC

  • Thu 10-29, after close: Amazon, Intel, Starbucks, Gilead earnings. MNQ, MES

  • Thu 10-29, evening: Bank of Japan decision. The BoJ doesn't set an exact release time. MGC, MNQ, MES

  • Fri 10-30, before open: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron earnings. MCL, MES

  • Fri 10-30, 5:30 a.m.: Employment Cost Index (Q3). All four

  • Fri 10-30, 6:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI (Oct). MES

  • Fri 10-30, 9:00 and 9:30 a.m.: Fed's Mary Daly and Alberto Musalem speak. All four

Earnings dates and times come from company announcements and can move. Check the company's investor-relations page the day before.


Where the levels meet the calendar

For each market, write down two scenarios before Monday and what would prove each one wrong. These are planning prompts, not predictions.

MNQ: the low versus three earnings reports

MNQ starts the week 131.50 points above last week's low, and Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report after the close on Wednesday and Thursday. Those reactions happen during Globex hours, when liquidity is thinner.

  • Scenario A: the low holds, and price works back toward the 30,000 to 30,114 zone where the 50 EMA, the 21 EMA and last week's high cluster. What would you need to see first?

  • Scenario B: an earnings reaction breaks 28,986.25. The next level on this map is the 200 EMA at 28,250.64, about 867 points below Friday's close. That's $1,734 per contract.

  • Decide now: will you be flat at 1:00 p.m. Wednesday and Thursday, or hold through the reports?

MES: 45 ticks of room

MES closed 11.25 points above last week's low. That's 45 ticks, or $56.25 per contract. Almost any normal move tests it.

  • Scenario A: the low holds and price reclaims the 50 EMA at 7,724.32.

  • Scenario B: the low breaks early in the week, before the big events even arrive. How will you tell a real break from a quick run of stops below an obvious level?

MCL: the high, the Fed and the oil majors

Crude closed 66 cents below its weekly high, and it has its own events: EIA on Wednesday morning, the inflation data on Thursday and the Exxon and Chevron reports on Friday.

  • Scenario A: price breaks through $103.93 and holds above it.

  • Scenario B: price rejects the high. The 21 EMA at $95.73 and last week's low at $95.26 sit close together, about $8 below. That's roughly $800 per contract.

  • Ask yourself: crude is far above all its averages. If you're short, where exactly are you wrong?

MGC: a round number and a rate decision

Gold closed $18.90 above its weekly low, just above $4,000, a round number many traders watch. Gold pays no interest, so expectations of higher rates make it less attractive to hold. That's why the Fed on Wednesday and PCE on Thursday matter more for gold this week than any gold news.

  • Scenario A: the low and $4,000 hold, and price bounces toward the 21 EMA at $4,175.70.

  • Scenario B: price breaks $3,989 and stays below $4,000. Where is your next level, and is it on your chart before Monday?


Lesson of the week: plan the Fed day before it starts

Fed days have two parts. The statement comes out at 11:00 a.m. PT, and the press conference starts 30 minutes later. Price can react to the statement and then react again to the chair's answers. Both moves happen fast.

A simple plan, written before Wednesday:

  1. Before 11:00 a.m.: decide whether you'll be flat. If you hold a position, know the dollar value of your stop.

  2. 11:00 a.m. to about 12:30 p.m.: stand aside unless your plan says otherwise. Entering in the first seconds means trading on a headline, not a setup.

  3. After the press conference: wait for a completed candle on your timeframe, such as a 15- or 30-minute close, before treating any level as broken.

  4. Then do it again for Thursday's 5:30 a.m. data and the 1:00 p.m. earnings.

Put real numbers on it. Last Thursday, MNQ moved 865 points in one day: $1,730 per micro contract. Five micros would have been $8,650. Size for the move this week could bring, not for last week's average day.


Your prep checklist

  • Put every high-impact event in your calendar in Pacific time, including the 1:00 a.m. London open this week.

  • Decide which windows you'll sit out: Wednesday 11:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m., Thursday 5:30 a.m., and both 1:00 p.m. earnings windows.

  • Write two scenarios for each market you trade, plus what would prove each one wrong.

  • Know the dollar value of your stop per contract before you enter.

  • Set a daily loss limit, and stop when you hit it.

  • Coming next week: the U.S. midterm elections are Tuesday, 11-3, and U.S. clocks fall back on 11-1. The Sunday Prep No. 3 will cover both.

Friday review: Which scenario played out? Did you follow your plan through the Fed and the earnings? Reply and tell me what you noticed.


Study the contracts behind this week's levels: MNQ · MES · MGC · MCL. Tools and calendars are on our Resources page.


For educational purposes only. Martech Holdings Incorporated LLC does not provide individualized investment advice, trade signals or recommendations. Futures trading involves substantial risk, and you can lose more than your initial margin. Past results do not guarantee future results. Event dates and times can change, so confirm them with the source before acting. Read our Risk Disclaimer and Privacy Policy.


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