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The Sunday Prep #3: Week of November 2, 2026

Writer: Anthony M.
Anthony M.
4 days ago
8 min read

Sunday, 11-01-2026. All times Pacific. Prices are daily closes through Friday, 10-30-2026, and match CME Group settlements for the December micro contracts.

Welcome back to the desk

Last week ended with the kind of Friday that tests a plan. MNQ fell 1,028 points on Friday alone. That's $2,056 on one micro contract in one day. Gold fell $132.50, or $1,325 per MGC contract, and closed at $3,898.90. Crude went the other way and closed at $104.12, 87 cents under its weekly high.

What drove it: Intel fell 28.58% on Friday after a weak outlook, its worst day since 1974, a chip index fell 7.2%, and two Fed officials signaled that rates may need to rise. A day earlier, Alphabet fell 12.64% after its earnings. The Fed held rates Wednesday at 3.75% to 4.00%, but two of the twelve voters wanted a hike.

This week has two very different kinds of risk: an election, whose results arrive after the stock market closes, and the jobs report, which lands at a scheduled minute on Friday.

Two events to plan around

When (PT)

Event

Markets

Tue 11-03, all day

U.S. Election Day (midterms). Results come in Tuesday evening, during overnight trading

All four

Fri 11-06, 5:30 a.m.

October jobs report (Employment Situation)

All four

Election night. CME's holiday calendar lists no change to trading hours for Election Day, and the NYSE is open as usual. Results come in after the 1:00 p.m. PT stock close, while futures keep trading overnight. Fewer traders are active at night, so fewer orders sit in the book, and price can move further on less news. This newsletter doesn't predict elections. What matters for your plan is simpler: if you hold a position into Tuesday evening, you are holding it through a news event with no scheduled time.

The jobs report. It arrives at 5:30 a.m. PT Friday, one hour before the stock market opens. It's the big one for all four markets: strong hiring can push rate-hike bets up, which has tended to weigh on gold and growth stocks, and weak hiring can do the opposite. These are tendencies, not rules.

Your clocks changed, the CME open didn't

U.S. clocks fell back an hour early this morning. Europe switched last week.

Session

Last week (PT)

From today (PT)

CME Globex reopen

3:00 p.m. Sunday

3:00 p.m. Sunday

Tokyo open (9:00 a.m. Tokyo)

5:00 p.m.

4:00 p.m.

London open (8:00 a.m. London)

1:00 a.m.

12:00 a.m.

If you trade the Asia session, Tokyo now opens an hour earlier on your clock. London is back to midnight. The U.S. data times you're used to don't change: 8:30 a.m. Eastern is still 5:30 a.m. Pacific.

Last week in four charts

Each chart shows about three months of daily candles. The shaded box is last week, and the dashed lines mark its high and low. The 21 EMA (cream) tracks about a month, the 50 EMA (periwinkle) about a quarter, and the 200 EMA (gold) roughly a year.

MNQ: through the 200 EMA, then back above it

MNQ daily chart with last week's high and low and the 21, 50 and 200 EMAs

MNQ fell 583.75 points (2.00%) for the week and closed at 28,534.00. Friday's low of 28,232.25 was about 77 points below the 200 EMA (28,309.66), but the close was 224.34 points above it. The 21 EMA (29,847.08) and 50 EMA (29,904.55) are now more than 1,300 points overhead. The week's high, 30,180.00, came Wednesday, on Fed day.

MES: back at the floor

MES daily chart with last week's high and low and the 21, 50 and 200 EMAs

MES fell 45.75 points (0.60%) and closed at 7,614.00, 56.25 points above the week's low of 7,557.75. It traded above both the 21 EMA (7,744.64) and the 50 EMA (7,724.11) on Wednesday, then gave it all back. The 200 EMA sits far below at 7,383.86.

MCL: at the ceiling again

MCL daily chart with last week's high and low and the 21, 50 and 200 EMAs

MCL rose $0.85 (0.82%) and closed at $104.12, 87 cents under the week's high of $104.99, set on Friday. Price is above all three EMAs, and the nearest, the 21 EMA at $98.20, is almost $6 below. Reports pointed to tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Oman and fears of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran.

MGC: a new low for this chart

MGC daily chart with last week's high and low and the 21, 50 and 200 EMAs

MGC fell $109.00 (2.72%) and closed at $3,898.90, $19.60 above the week's low of $3,879.30. That's its lowest daily close since at least late June. All three EMAs are above price: the 21 EMA ($4,113.86), the 50 EMA ($4,210.82) and the 200 EMA ($4,294.66).

Key levels at a glance

Market

Fri close

Last wk high

Last wk low

21 EMA

50 EMA

200 EMA

MNQ

28,534.00

30,180.00

28,232.25

29,847.08

29,904.55

28,309.66

MES

7,614.00

7,819.50

7,557.75

7,744.64

7,724.11

7,383.86

MCL

104.12

104.99

99.44

98.20

94.27

85.35

MGC

3,898.90

4,097.30

3,879.30

4,113.86

4,210.82

4,294.66

Closes, highs and lows match CME Group's December settlements for the micro contracts. EMAs are calculated on TradingView continuous front-month daily closes. Your broker's numbers can differ slightly.

Roll watch: no rolls this week. December MCL stops trading Thursday 11-19. December MGC's first notice day is Monday 11-30.

This week's full calendar

"Before open" means before 6:30 a.m. PT. "After close" means after 1:00 p.m. PT.

  • Sun 11-01: OPEC+ met online Sunday and kept December output targets steady. MCL

  • Mon 11-02, 7:00 a.m.: ISM manufacturing index (Oct); construction spending. MES, MNQ, MCL

  • Mon 11-02, after close: Apple and Palantir earnings. MNQ, MES

  • Mon 11-02, 7:30 p.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia decision. MGC context

  • Tue 11-03: Election Day. Shopify earnings before the open. MNQ

  • Tue 11-03, 7:00 a.m.: JOLTS job openings (Sep); factory orders. MES, MNQ, MGC

  • Tue 11-03, after close: AMD earnings. MNQ

  • Wed 11-04, 5:15 a.m.: ADP employment (Oct). 5:30 a.m.: trade balance (Sep). All four

  • Wed 11-04, 7:00 a.m.: ISM services index (Oct). MES, MNQ, MGC

  • Wed 11-04, 7:30 a.m.: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. MCL

  • Wed 11-04, after close: Qualcomm and Arm earnings. MNQ

  • Thu 11-05, about 4:00 a.m.: Bank of England decision. MGC context

  • Thu 11-05, 5:30 a.m.: weekly jobless claims; Q3 productivity and labor costs. All four

  • Thu 11-05, 5:50 a.m.: Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack speaks. She voted for a hike last week. All four

  • Fri 11-06, 5:30 a.m.: October jobs report. All four

  • Fri 11-06, 6:10 a.m.: St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem speaks. All four

  • Fri 11-06, 7:00 a.m.: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary, Nov). MES, MGC

The Fed's next decision is Wednesday, 12-09. Earnings dates and times come from company announcements and earnings calendars and can move. Check the company's investor-relations page the day before.

Next week: Veterans Day is Wednesday 11-11. CME says products settle at normal times, and EIA moves its oil report to Thursday 11-12 at 9:00 a.m. PT.

Where the levels meet the calendar

For each market, write down two scenarios before Monday and what would prove each one wrong. These are planning prompts, not predictions.

MNQ: the 200 EMA under a heavy earnings week

Price closed 301.75 points above the week's low ($603.50 per contract), with the 200 EMA in between. Apple and Palantir report Monday, AMD Tuesday, and Qualcomm and Arm Wednesday, all after the close.

  • Scenario A: the 200 EMA and Friday's low hold, and price works back toward the 21 and 50 EMAs near 29,850 to 29,900. What would you need to see first?

  • Scenario B: price closes below 28,232.25. Below that, the next level is the 07-29 low of 27,200.00, just before this chart begins and more than 1,300 points below Friday's close. That's over $2,600 per contract.

  • Decide now: will you hold through Tuesday night's election results, or be flat before the evening session?

MES: 225 ticks of room

MES closed 56.25 points above the week's low. That's 225 ticks, or $281.25 per contract.

  • Scenario A: the low holds and price gets back above the 50 EMA at 7,724.11, about 110 points up.

  • Scenario B: the low breaks. The next level on this map is the 200 EMA at 7,383.86, about 230 points below Friday's close ($1,150.70 per contract).

MCL: the high, the oil report and the headlines

Crude closed 87 cents under the week's high, and the moves have been driven by news from the Middle East that has no schedule.

  • Scenario A: price breaks through $104.99 and holds. The September high on this chart was $106.75.

  • Scenario B: price rejects the high. Last week's low ($99.44) and the 21 EMA ($98.20) sit close together, $4.68 and $5.92 below Friday's close. That's $468 to $592 per contract.

  • Ask yourself: how will you size a trade in a market that can gap on a headline at any hour?

MGC: no floor on this chart

Gold closed $19.60 above its weekly low, and there's no lower level on this three-month chart. That doesn't mean price has to fall. It means you'll be planning without a nearby reference.

  • Scenario A: the low holds and price climbs back toward $4,000 and the $3,989.00 low from the week before.

  • Scenario B: price breaks $3,879.30. With no level below on this chart, decide your risk in dollars before the bell, not in chart levels.

  • Watch: Friday's jobs report. Gold pays no interest, so a strong report that lifts rate-hike bets has tended to pressure it.

How last week's scenarios played out

  • MNQ: Scenario B. An earnings reaction broke last week's low of 28,986.25, and price reached the 200 EMA area we flagged.

  • MES: both. Price reclaimed the 50 EMA by Wednesday (Scenario A), then broke the 7,648.50 low on Friday (Scenario B).

  • MCL: Scenario A. Price broke above $103.93 and closed above it Friday.

  • MGC: Scenario B. Price broke $3,989 and closed below $4,000.

Did your plan cover both outcomes? That's the point of writing two.

Lesson of the week: traded through or closed through?

On Friday, MNQ traded about 77 points below its 200 EMA, then closed 224 points above it. Did it "break" the 200 EMA?

It depends on what you decided ahead of time. A level can be:

  1. Traded through: price touched the other side, even for one tick.

  2. Closed through: a candle on your timeframe finished on the other side.

  3. Held through: price stayed on the other side for a set time, such as two daily closes.

None is right or wrong. The mistake is deciding after the fact. If you trade the 200 EMA, write down which of these counts for you before Monday. Then the same rule applies on a day like Friday, when emotions run high.

Your prep checklist

  • Put this week's events in your calendar in Pacific time, including the new 4:00 p.m. Tokyo open.

  • Decide now whether you'll hold positions through Tuesday night's election results.

  • Decide which windows you'll sit out, such as 5:30 a.m. Friday and each 1:00 p.m. earnings window.

  • Write two scenarios for each market you trade, plus what would prove each one wrong.

  • Know the dollar value of your stop per contract before you enter.

  • Set a daily loss limit, and stop when you hit it.

Friday review: Which scenario played out? Did you follow your plan through the election and the jobs report? Reply and tell me what you noticed.

For educational purposes only. Martech Holdings Incorporated LLC does not provide individualized investment advice, trade signals or recommendations. Futures trading involves substantial risk, and you can lose more than your initial margin. Past results do not guarantee future results. Event dates and times can change, so confirm them with the source before acting. Read our Risk Disclaimer and Privacy Policy.

Sources

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