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Seasons of the Futures Market: What the Calendar Can and Can't Tell You

Writer: Anthony M.
Anthony M.
Oct 20
6 min read

Updated: Oct 24

Tuesday, 10-20-2026. All times Pacific. Education only: no signals and no trade calls.


Why the calendar matters

Futures started with farmers. Wheat gets planted, it grows and it gets harvested on a schedule, so prices had a rhythm long before anyone drew a chart. The four markets I cover here have rhythms too: gold (MGC), Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), S&P 500 (MES) and crude oil (MCL). Some come from the weather. Some come from holidays. Some come from the exchange's own calendar.


This post walks through those seasons one market at a time. The goal isn't to predict anything. It's to know what time of year it is before you sit down to trade.


The same oak tree shown in spring, summer, fall and winter
Same tree, four seasons. Markets have seasons too, but they don't repeat as neatly.

One rule before we start: a seasonal pattern is an average of many years. It tells you what has tended to happen, not what will happen this year. Some years break the pattern completely. Treat a season like a weather forecast, not a schedule.


Crude oil (MCL): the busiest calendar of the four

Oil has more seasons than the other three markets, because how much of it people burn depends on the weather and on how much they drive.


Late winter and spring: refineries shut down for maintenance

According to the EIA, the peak refinery maintenance season is the first quarter of the year. Refiners also switch from winter-grade to summer-grade gasoline, which costs more to make. Output drops while that happens, and inventories get drawn down.


Oil refinery towers and storage tanks at sunset
Refineries do much of their maintenance in the first quarter of the year.

The EIA looked at 20 years of gasoline prices and found that the spring price increase typically began in early February and ended around Memorial Day. That study covers gasoline at the pump, not crude futures. The two are connected, though, because refiners are the ones buying the crude.


Summer: driving season

The EIA says U.S. gasoline demand tends to peak in June, July and August. More people are on the road in the summer, which is why you hear about Memorial Day and the Fourth of July in oil coverage.


Heavy traffic on a multi-lane highway
More driving in summer pushes U.S. gasoline demand to its yearly peak.

June through November: hurricane season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. The National Hurricane Center puts the peak around September 10, and most of the activity falls between mid-August and mid-October.


Hurricane Milton seen from the International Space Station
Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico, seen from the International Space Station on 10-07-2024. Photo: NASA.

Why oil traders care: the Gulf of Mexico produced 14% of U.S. crude oil in 2023, and the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts hold 48% of U.S. refining capacity, according to the EIA. A storm can shut down oil platforms, refineries or both. Which one it hits matters, so the same storm headline can push crude either way.


Also on the MCL calendar: every month. MCL lists a new contract every month, so it rolls every month. Last week's Sunday Prep flagged 10-19 as the last trading day for the November contract.


Gold (MGC): festival and wedding season

Gold's best-known season comes from India, one of the world's biggest gold buyers. The World Gold Council calls Diwali and Dhanteras, which fall in October or November, "India's peak gold-buying occasions." The wedding season that follows runs roughly from November through March and supports jewelry demand.


Traditional gold necklaces, earrings and bangles
Gold jewelry is a big part of wedding season in India.

Here's the catch. Jewelry is only one piece of the gold market. In The Sunday Prep I watch interest rates and the dollar for gold, and those can easily outweigh a seasonal effect. Even in 2025, the World Gold Council reported that activity in November was subdued after Diwali, even as wedding season began. Seasons nudge. They don't steer.


Stock indexes (MES, MNQ): September, the best six months and Santa

Stock seasonality gets the most headlines, which also makes it the easiest to over-trust. Here are the three patterns you'll hear about most:

  • September: Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished September higher only 44% of the time. Over the last 75 years it has averaged a 0.7% loss for the month, according to LPL Financial (08-29-2025).

  • November through April: CFRA found that the S&P 500 averaged a 6.8% gain from November through April since 1945, compared with 1.7% from May through October (figures as of 2021). That gap is where "sell in May and go away" comes from.

  • The Santa Claus rally: the last five trading days of December plus the first two of January. Yale Hirsch first recorded it in the Stock Trader's Almanac in 1972. The Almanac's figures show stocks rising in that window about 76% of the time, with an average gain of about 1.3%.


There's also a season you can see on any calendar: earnings. Companies report four times a year, after each quarter ends, and we're in one of those stretches right now. Last week's Sunday Prep had Netflix, Meta and Tesla on the schedule. During earnings season, one company's report can move the whole index after hours, especially MNQ, where a handful of large tech companies carry a lot of weight.


The season every futures trader lives on: expiration and the roll

This one isn't a tendency. It's a rule. Every futures contract expires, and you need to know when yours does.

  • MES and MNQ: contracts expire in March, June, September and December, on the third Friday of the month. CME lists the roll date as the Monday before that Friday. Next up: the December contract expires Friday 12-18-2026, and the roll date is Monday 12-14-2026.

  • MCL: a new contract every month, so a roll every month.

  • MGC: gold has its own schedule of contract months. Check CME's contract page for the current front month.


Around a roll, a continuous chart can jump when it switches from one contract to the next. That jump isn't a real move in the market. It's the price difference between two contracts.


A year at a glance

When

What's on the calendar

Markets

January to March

Peak refinery maintenance season. India's wedding season continues. Fourth-quarter earnings.

MCL, MGC, MES, MNQ

February to Memorial Day

Switch to summer-grade gasoline. Pump prices have historically risen in this stretch.

MCL

June to August

Peak U.S. gasoline demand. Hurricane season starts 6-1.

MCL

September

Weakest month on average for the S&P 500 since 1950. Hurricane season peaks around 9-10.

MES, MNQ, MCL

October to November

Diwali and Dhanteras. India's wedding season starts. Hurricane season ends 11-30.

MGC, MCL

November to April

The "best six months" stretch for stocks in CFRA's data.

MES, MNQ

Late December to early January

Santa Claus rally window: last 5 trading days of December, first 2 of January.

MES, MNQ

March, June, September, December

Equity index futures expire on the third Friday.

MES, MNQ

Every month

A new crude oil contract and a new roll.

MCL

These are tendencies and scheduled dates, not predictions. Dates can shift from year to year, so confirm them with the source.


How to use seasons without getting fooled

  • Use it as context, not a signal. A season tells you what time of year it is. Your plan still decides when you trade.

  • Check this year against the average. Is price doing what the season usually does? If it isn't, that's information too.

  • Let the news outrank the calendar. One storm, one Fed meeting or one earnings report can matter more than any average. MCL rallied 7.81% in the week ending 10-16-2026. A seasonal average can't tell you when a week like that is coming.

  • Write it down. Note the season in your journal next to each trade. After a year, you'll know whether it actually mattered for you.


Your seasonal checklist

  • Mark the next equity index roll on your calendar: Monday 12-14-2026.

  • Know where we are in hurricane season. It ends 11-30.

  • Keep India's wedding season, November through March, in the background for gold.

  • Mark the Santa Claus rally window: the last five trading days of December and the first two of January.

  • Before each trade, ask yourself: what season is it, and does my plan account for it?


Your turn: which season have you noticed in your own trading? Tell me in the comments, and I may use it in a future post.


If you want this kind of prep every week, The Sunday Prep comes out each Sunday at noon Pacific.


Study the contracts behind this post: MNQ · MES · MGC · MCL. Tools and calendars are on our Resources page.


For educational purposes only. Martech Holdings Incorporated LLC does not provide individualized investment advice, trade signals or recommendations. Futures trading involves substantial risk, and you can lose more than your initial margin. Past results do not guarantee future results, and seasonal patterns are historical averages, not forecasts. Event dates and times can change, so confirm them with the source before acting. Read our Risk Disclaimer and Privacy Policy.


Sources


Photos: Dulcey Lima, Red Shuheart, Herman Mahal and PRAHANT STUDIO on Unsplash, free to use under the Unsplash License. Hurricane Milton: NASA, public domain.

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